Time to accept what the Wiz are … instead of waiting for what was supposed to be.
Before the 2018-19 NBA season began, the Wizards were assumed to be a playoff-caliber team. Regular Season Win Totals in the betting marketplace pegged them for 46 victories, meaning something near a 46-36 won-lost record. Some bettors had to be taking Over for the line to settle there. That means some believed John Wall, Dwight Howard, and company might make a run at 50 wins.
How about 50 losses? Heading into Tuesday night’s home game against the surprisingly potent Clippers, Washington is 5-11 straight up and against the spread. The Wizards (+1) were dominated by the Trail Blazers 119-109 Sunday night (down 25 in the fourth quarter). That, after losing at home to the Nets 115-104 as a 6-point favorite their prior outing.
A glance at the skill-set report card shows Washington struggles in many categories that matter most in the modern NBA. For “offense” and “defense,” we’re using “efficiency” data, which adjusts scoring for pace.
Washington Report Card
Offense: Average
Defense: Near league worst
Rebound Rate: Near league worst
3-Point Pct: Near league worst
So, the Wizards can’t make 3s on offense (but do enough other things right to rise to “average” overall), can’t defend, and can’t rebound (rebound rate measures the number of available rebounds grabbed). So, this horrible start isn’t some sort of illusion created by running into hot teams. Washington is getting outclassed at everything but attacking in the paint.
It could get worse! After hosting the Clippers on Tuesday, Washington must visit powerhouse Toronto (Friday), host talented New Orleans (Saturday in night two of a back-to-back), and host resurgent Houston (Monday). A rematch with the Pelicans and a home game against Philadelphia close out the month. No auto-wins in the bunch.
Of course, none of this would matter to bettors if Washington was being priced properly by the composite of oddsmakers and sharps that shape point spreads. That hasn’t happened so far. Washington was treated as a playoff team out of the gate, and has been chalk (Las Vegas slang for favorites because point spreads used to be written on chalkboards) in 10-of-16 outings.
Further, the market has underestimated the team’s “blowout fodder” potential. Washington’s point spread misses in its past nine non-covers have been by 9, 17, 12, 20, 26, 11, 29, 9, and 12 points. That opens the door for “in-game” bettors who can see when a game’s about to go south. Washington’s starters go south hard.
Many NBA bettors have been frustrated this season by the inconsistency of so many high-profile teams. Utah beat Dallas by 15, then 10 days later lost to the Mavs by 50. Houston couldn’t get anything going until it dumped Carmelo Anthony. Boston’s been burning money for backers. Golden State’s been moody while biding its time.
Team consistency is a bettor’s best friend. If Washington is going to be consistently bad against any opponent that knows where it’s going, take advantage before the market finally “catches down” to the Wizards’ poor play.